RandomMaccess looks at the 'State of the Mac' for 2004
December 31, 2003 | by Chuck La Tournous
Macworld magazine has once again failed to ask me for my prognostications about "the year ahead" for the Mac. It's hard to be upset about it this, year, though, because it looks like the magazine won't be posting a fourth installment of its up-to-now annual survey of the Mac elite.
No matter, I'll just go solo this year.
As I've said before, I don't go much for rumors. But by observing the industry, listening to Apple's stated goals and watching its actions, it's not too hard to make some educated guesses about what might be in the company's not-too-distant future.
Hardware:
The slam dunk no-brainer is the "mini iPod." Toshiba has been churning out smaller hard drives, and although most analysts are looking for a flash media device, I'll break ranks and predict Apple will go with the 2-3GB hard drive. I think the "magic price point" for these devices is under $100. Probably $99, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Apple go after this market aggressively with a $79 or $89 model. I'll even be presumptuous enough to offer a name: the "myPod." I don't think we'll see anything new on the laptop front, but I think we'll see speed-bumped PowerMacs: 2.6, 2.2 and 2.0GHz -- although, as I'm in the market for one, that may be as much wishful thinking as savvy observation. And finally -- it didn't come as I predicted last year, so I'll try again now: a new, non-computer device will rise from the stage floor as Steve Jobs' obligatory "one more thing."
Software:
I'd be shocked if we didn't see major upgrades to iPhoto and iMovie; I also think the rumors of a new version of iTunes with mixing capabilities make sense. I think we'll either see an Apple productivity suite complete with word processor and spreadsheet, or the announcement of a new version of Microsoft Office -- but not both. Also look for a pro sound editing package along the lines of Final Cut Pro and Soundtrack -- it's the one gaping hole in Apple's digital production solution.
Apple News:
Continued diversity from Cupertino. Apple will look for ways other than computers to make a profit. The company will continue to roll out retail stores, but will close a few poor performers this year. If dot-Mac renewal rates were truly as high as the company is claiming (and I'm not convinced they are), look for more services tied into dot-Mac; if not, I think dot-Mac will turn into more of a distribution channel for non-subscribers and third-parties. There's an outside chance of Apple getting into the video business if it can work out the DRM issues.
Market News:
More security and virus concerns on the Windows platform will entice enterprise customers to take another look at the Mac; Apple will score a couple major corporate wins this year. Competitors to the iTunes Music Store will start to gain some ground, but Apple will retain dominance, helped in part by the myPod, which will put Apple devices into the hands of a lot more music lovers and may force some competitors to offer downloads in AAC format.
Just for the record, my predictions for last year are still available, wherein I got a lot of things right and said a couple things too early. My major miss was a happy one: I thought more of Apple's services would be subscription-only and that we'd have to pay for iChat video conferencing and iSync. I'll gladly eat crow on that one. Macworld's panel had a similarly spotty record last year, with Henry Bortman batting .500 with calls for both an Apple web browser (hit) and an Intel-compatible operating system (miss).
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