Macworld, RandomMaccess look at the state of the Mac in 2003
Tuesday, December 31, 2002

Macworld posted its third annual "Look at the Year Ahead in Macs," in which industry pundits and personalities prognosticate about the short-term future of the Macintosh. And although they didn't ask us, RandomMaccess adds its two cents to the mix. (Hey, we can't do much worse than last year's prediction that Steve Jobs would run for governor of California.)

Also still available on Macworld's site is last year's view into the crystal ball, where predictions of an OS X version of Quark, an Apple PDA and the closing of several Apple stores all missed the mark.

RandomMaccess Publisher Chuck La Tournous says he eschews Macworld Expo predictions, but thinks "market conditions and Apple's outlined strategies and previous announcements provide some insight into where the company is headed in 2003:"

Following the Macworld format, then, here's his take on what the most significant news in 2003 will be on several fronts:

Hardware: A bigger display on the iMac; a new form factor for the Power Mac, which despite minor cosmetic changes, is getting really long in the tooth. I also think there will be a new iDevice rising up from the stage floor, but I haven't the slightest idea what it might be -- a plain old cell phone, no matter how cool, doesn't strike me as an Apple product. I also think the "color-changing" hardware rumor floating around is a red herring, but Bluetooth will get a lot of play.

Software: iSync goes golden and will (unfortunately) be a subscription-based service. We'll get a major upgrade to iPhoto. But the big news will be in the area of dot-Mac-branded services. I think iChat's video conferencing will be tied into this somehow.

Apple News: Apple stores start turning a profit in a major way. Apple will make more money from iDevices and services than hardware sales.

Market News: The introduction of QuarkXPress for OS X will make the issue of migrating from OS 9 drop off the RADAR screens of most news outlets. But InDesign will have made significant inroads into Quark's market share by the time it comes out. We'll also see real growth in Apple's market share overall, and in the enterprise particularly.